Weekly update from our research partner Investsense



WHAT: Brent crude fell from US$103 to below US$92 after reports of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
WHY: The White House quickly tempered expectations, and Chevron's CEO noted that even a signed deal would take months to clear mines and re-route the roughly 2,000 tankers trapped inside the Gulf.
WHAT: Equity markets rallied regardless.
WHY: The S&P 500 finished May up 5.2% and the NASDAQ up 10%, with the AI capital expenditure cycle doing more of the lifting than any geopolitical thaw.
WHAT: Australian inflation eased modestly in April, and long-end yields drifted lower for a second consecutive week.
WHY: Monthly CPI came in at 4.4%, down from 4.6%. The implication is that the RBA appears to have got ahead of the inflation problem relative to most peers, and Australian bonds have been the beneficiary, with the 10-year yield easing to around 4.8%.
WHAT: The AI trade has been extraordinarily concentrated, with gains confined to chips and energy while software stocks have moved sharply in the opposite direction.
WHY: The NASDAQ is up over 40% for the year and emerging markets look extraordinary. The story in emerging markets illustrates the narrowness: Korea is up close to 100% year to date and Taiwan around 50%, while the rest of the asset class is flat despite earnings compounding at around 20% per annum. Strip out those two markets and the emerging markets rally disappears entirely.
WHAT: Australian private capital expenditure rose 6.5% in the March quarter, but the headline masked a narrow and uneven recovery.
WHY: The lift came almost entirely from data-centre machinery in New South Wales and Victoria. Mining was flat, utilities and transport contracted, and household spending fell 1.1%. The local index has been largely untroubled by offshore oil volatility but continues to lag in absolute terms.
WHAT: Mid-cap Australian software stocks, sold down heavily this year on AI disruption fears, rebounded sharply overnight on Salesforce's OpenAI partnership commentary.
WHY: Names including Xero, WiseTech, SiteMinder and Life360 had been sold down aggressively, but most rallied 6-12% today following the Salesforce news. Whether this is signs of life or what traders use to call a dead cat bounce remains to be seen.
Listen to the Investsense podcast for weekly updates:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-investsense-podcast/id1497076117
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3xR4Vjn77KBpVOj2N15r1p
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